Photon Consulting has issued a report claiming that, by 2020,
by 2010, the cost of solar will be below the price of grid electricity for at least 50 percent of OECD residential demand, equivalent to around 1,500 GW of solar power. This is much larger than the 15 GW of cell/module production PHOTON Consulting anticipates for 2010
Photon’s analysis is that solar is, at a true cost of under 25 cents / kwh, competitive in high price electricity markets. Photon seeks solar at “10¢ to 15¢ per kWh by 2010″.
In 2006, the production of solar electricity from a typical 4 kilowatt (kW) rooftop system in Germany cost 30 cents per kWh, in Spain it was 19 cents, and in California it was 22 cents. By 2010, Photon Consulting estimates that solar electricity will be produced for 18 cents in Southern Germany, 12 cents per (kWh) in Spain, and 13 cents in California.
Photon sees a 20+ % reduction in production costs for solar PV systems over the next three years.